The Early Oil: Flemington


Sky horse racing update, American trainer eyes off everest and Black Opal confirmed for the Golden Slipper.

Jameka ridden by Nicholas Hall wins race 8 the BMW Caulfield Cup during Caulfield Cup Raceday at Caulfield Racecourse on Saturday, October 15, 2016, in Caulfield, Victoria, Australia. Picture: Hamish Blair

GUN filly I Am A Star looks a standout in the Group 2 Kewney Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, according to Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.

Michael believes I Am A Star will find this easier than her two starts this time in which have both been sound runs with a second to Super Cash over 1100m at Caulfield at Group 2 level and then a seventh in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate.

And let’s no forget that just three starts ago before going for a spell she won the Group 1 Myer Classic at this track.

From barrier four she should get a great on-speed run and that is enough for Michael to make her his best bet of the day.

BEST BET

I AM A STAR (R5, No. 2)

EARLY QUAD

3,5,9,10/1,2,3,4,5,6,9,12,13,16/1,3,5,7/2,6

$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent

VALUE RUNNER

TRY FOUR (R2, No. 5)

BIG6

1,3,5,7/2/1,2,14,15/1,2,14,15/1,2,6,9/1,6,101,11/2,7,12,14

$100 flexi for 9.76 per cent

QUAD

2,14,15/1,2,4,6,9/1,6,10,11/2,5,7,8,11,12,13,14

$100 flexi for 20.83 per cent

Race 1: The Melbourne Cup Carnival On Sale Handicap (1400m) 12.15pm

DUSTY JACK (7), who carries the colours of the Tiger jumper and named after two of their stars, has won his past three starts impressively. Last start at Sandown he sprinted home quickly to defeated two horses which have since franked the form with runner-up Atlantic City having won since and third placegetter Anaheim finishing fifth in the Australian Guineas. BATTLECAMP (10) also hasn’t started since winning easily at the same meeting on February 15. He should be suited by the fast speed. TOP ME UP (8) put together two good runs over 1400m here before last start close-up third at Sandown. Former Sydney galloper CANNYESCENT (9) was pushed out to win his debut for Lindsay Park. Every runner has some claims.

SUGGESTED BET: DUSTY JACK THE WIN

Market movers: Dusty Jack $4-$3.60 ($1500 @ $4)

Race 2: My Kitchen Rules Handicap (1800m) 12.50pm

TRY FOUR’s (5) two runs back from a spell suggest he’s in for a great campaign. He finished off fast closing sectionals when first-up fifth behind Duke Of Brunswick over 1400m at Caulfield and then last start over 1700m at Flemington he was trapped wide throughout but still finished on well for seventh. He’s since had a jumps trial. RED ALTO (9) is in great form having won his past three starts. He races handy to the speed which is a great asset. HIPPARCHUS (3) put in a shocker last start but his previous form was sound. HURSLEY (10) has been close up at his last two starts and drops in weight.

SUGGESTED BET: TRY FOUR EACH-WAY

Market movers: Hursley $4-$3.40 ($450 @ $4, $500 @ $3.60)

Race 3: Incognitus Stakes (1100m) 1.25pm

A Flemington straight track lottery with every horse having a chance. VILLA ROSSA (16) didn’t have much luck at Moonee Valley last start as she was held up for a run for a considerable distance when sixth behind Brugal Reward. In the same race CLOCKWORK ORANGE (13) finished off well after sitting wide to finish second. Stablemate WATERLOO SUNSET (12) showed a lot of potential last spring and will carry blinkers first time. BARTHELONA (4) was just beaten with big weight down the straight three starts ago and since then was luckless also at Flemington before running on for third at Moonee Valley last start. MATTY (6) is undefeated in three starts. SELENIA (5) fought on well last start in the Typhoon Tracy after having had a tough run. She is a straight track winner. SWEET SHERRY (1) and KEN’S DREAM (2) are classy sprinters.

SUGGESTED BET: VILLA ROSSA EACH-WAY

Market movers: No bets or movements of note

ESHTIRAAK (3) was impressive winning at Sandown last start after working early to share the lead. He’s drawn barrier one and 1400m will suit. TOGA PICTA (7) couldn’t have been more impressive winning his debut at Wyong. He raced greenly but knuckled down like a smart horse to win narrowly. ASPECT (1) finished off strongly in the Blue Diamond and should be suited by 1400m. GROUNDBREAK (5) knuckled at the start and worked home nicely when fourth at Flemington last start over 1100m. He will be trying to emulate his sire All Too Hard. SIRCONNI (8) made Eshtiraak work to beat him and BLACK SAIL (9) ran on nicely for fourth in the same race.

SUGGESTED BET: ESHTIRAAK THE WIN

Market movers: Eshtiraak $3.20-$3.10 ($1500 @ $3.20, $800 @ $3.20)

I am a Star wins the Group 1 Myer Classic in November. Picture: Norm Oorloff

I am a Star wins the Group 1 Myer Classic in November. Picture: Norm OorloffSource:News Corp Australia

Race 5: TAB Kewney Stakes (1400m) 2.40pm

I AM A STAR (2) will find this easier than her two starts this time in which have both been sound runs with a second to Super Cash over 1100m at Caulfield at Group 2 level and then a seventh in the Oakleigh Plate. Three starts ago before going for a spell she won the Group 1 Myer Classic here. From barrier four she should get a great on speed run. MODERN WONDER (6) worked hard in fast tempo race and her effort to fight on for second behind Brugal Reward was excellent. She is also well drawn in barrier two. Blinkers went on KENEDNA (4) last start and it worked wonders when she swooped home to win the Vanity Stakes this track and distance. She’s again drawn out but will go back from her wide draw. ELLICAZOOM (3) also did a lot of work at Caulfield last start when just beaten by Savanna Amour. OREGON’S DAY (5) ran home well in the same race for third.

SUGGESTED BET: I AM A STAR THE WIN

Market movers: I Am A Star $3.20-$2.60 ($650 @ $3.20, $475 @ $3.10, $800 @ $2.90,

$300 @ $2.70)

Race 6: Schweppervesence Trophy (1600m) 3.15pm

ABBEY MARIE’s (2) has suffered her only defeats in two runs this campaign but they were both good efforts as she finished on well each time. 1600m will suit.

PURE PRIDE (14) has a terrible barrier but will go back anyway and try and use her paralysing sprint. She was luckless at her last two starts in spring at Flemington finishing second in the Blazer Stakes and then fifth beaten less than a length in the Myer Classic. Her unlucky theme continued with her first-up third with 60kg here. With only 54 kilos she’ll be hard to hold out. SEBRING DREAM (15) showed a lot of talent last spring and fought hard to win first-up over 1300m at Sandown. She will carry only 53 kilos as will the only other three-year-old filly in the field, the promising SMART AS YOU THINK (16). CIRCULAR (9) will be suited by the 1600m.

SUGGESTED BET: ABBEY MARIE EACH-WAY

Market movers: Alaskan Rose $41-$26

Craig Newitt and Extreme Choice claim the Moir Stakes last September. Picture: Getty Images)

Craig Newitt and Extreme Choice claim the Moir Stakes last September. Picture: Getty Images)Source:Getty Images

Race 7: Lexus Newmarket Handicap (1200m) 3.55pm

EXTREME CHOICE (6) flew home but gave away too big a start to the front runners who held on to quinella the Oakleigh Plate in SHEIDEL (4) and Faatinah. He’s drawn out in barrier 13 which should suit and with 53 kilos and Joao Moreira will prove hard to hold out. Another three-year-old colt STAR TURN (9) was just beaten in the Lightning Stakes but drops to 52.5 kilos and with that weight will also be hard to beat. SPIETH (2) has been luckless when narrowly beaten at his past two starts in Group 1 races at Flemington. At the last start straight track specialist TERRAVISTA (1) just grabbed him and he again should go close. ILLUSTRIOUS LAD (7) was forced to go forward in the Lightning Stakes. He drops 5.5 kilos and is better suited coming from off the speed. TIVACI (8) charged home to win over 1000m at Flemington in January and is another lightweight chance.

SUGGESTED BET: EXTREME CHOICE EACH-WAY

Market movers: Spieth $3.50-$3.40 ($2000 @ $3.50, $1500 @ $3.50, $300 @ $3.50 MULTIPLE; Sheidel $11-$8.50 ($375 e/w @ $11/$3.32, $500 @ $11, $250 @ $11,

$1800 @ $9.50)

Nicholas Hall celebrates his victory in the Caulfield Cup aboard Jameka. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Nicholas Hall celebrates his victory in the Caulfield Cup aboard Jameka. Picture: Jake NowakowskiSource:News Corp Australia

Race 8: TAB Australian Cup (2000m) 4.35pm

No surprise that JAMEKA (11) was left susceptible in the closing stages when fourth in the Peter Young Stakes as she was trapped wide early and then had to push forward mid-race to share the lead. Again she has drawn out but should be good speed in this with ECUADOR (5) and TOM MELBOURNE (8) pushing forward so she should be able to get a midfield spot. HUMIDOR (10) might be the best horse in the race but hasn’t yet put everything together. He charged home for second in the Peter Young Stakes behind his stablemate the iron-horse STRATUM STAR (1) who has again drawn well and will be in a great position. EXOSPHERIC (6) also finished on strongly for sixth in the Peter Young Stakes and he will be much better suited over 2000m at Flemington. THE UNITED STATES (3) and REAL LOVE (12) also are key chances.

SUGGESTED BET: JAMEKA THE WIN

Market movers: Exospheric $8.50-$8; Jameka $4.60-$4.20 ($2,000 @ $4.60, $400 @ $4.60, $4,000 e/w @ $4.40/$1.79, $500 @ $4.20)

Race 9: James Boag’s Premium Handicap (1000m) 5.20pm

Another straight track race with every runner having claims. SHAF (2) has had two starts this track and distance for a win and a fifth to Redzel, Terravista and Hellbent at his last start which reads well for this. ROCKET TOMMY (12) has won his last two starts easily including last start this track over 1100m on January 14. He’s in great form. ORUJO (7) is racing well for the Shawn Mathrick stable. Took up a good position at Moonee Valley last start and was only beaten by a swooper Beau Rada. LONROCKSTAR (14) has been disappointing but will go back and should be suited by the speed. RUNSATI (13) and SUPER FUN (11) also have claims.

SUGGESTED BET: SHAF EACH-WAY

Market movers: Rocket Tommy $7-$4.80 ($500 @ $6, $550 @ $5.50)

Originally published as The Early Oil: Flemington