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THE Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse the main races at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
STABLE WATCH: INSIDE MAIL FOR RANDWICK
RACE 4 (2.35pm): THE CHI-X SPRINT (1000m)
Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Dal Cielo and he has a similar profile to last time with a month freshen. He was pretty impressive and dominant winning at Warwick Farm and sprinting may be his go. The horse I’m most scared of is Denmagic just swooping down the outside here and she has a bit of quality about her. His Majesty, that’s an interesting freshen back to 1000m and he will need everything to go right but he is probably next pick.
Davidson: I took some of the $34 early about Heart Testa. I liked his first-up run at Eagle Farm where he had to be snagged back to last before running home in 32.91s. He can box seat here and he has had a change of scenery now with Matthew Smith. Straturbo was caught on the wrong part of the track at the Gold Coast over 1200m last start and back to 1000m suits. Dal Cielo is the one to beat but will give them a start and Denmagic is the class horse in the field.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Denmagic $6 unchanged ($600 @ $6, $500 @ $6)
RACE 5 (3.10pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: You had to be taken by Super Star Bob’s win the other day. He seems to be still learning and he is a lovely big horse and there is only upside with him. Clipper draws well and she looks a nice filly on the improve. She has a nice jockey change to Brenton Avdulla and she does map beautifully from that inside draw. Of the others, next pick would be L’elu and I just feel back in distance for her is the key with a little gear change.
Davidson: I’m keen on Clipper. I thought she was exposed a long way from home at Randwick last start and they went hard and basically she was a sitting duck at the finish. She gets a 3kg swing on Super Star Bob and looks hard to beat. The best roughie in the race is Tiger By The Tale and he finally draws a barrier here to sit midfield with 51.5kg on his back. The $7 a place is appealing. Super Star Bob and L’elu the other two main chances.
RACE 6 (3.45pm): ESKIMO PRINCE STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: I have an enormous opinion of Comin’ Through and he looks a Doncaster Mile horse to me. I wouldn’t think he is wound up but his class will take him a long way here. Spending To Win is the one with the fitness edge and he is third-up with on-pace favours I would expect in a race like that. I’m wary of Bryneich and he hasn’t seen anything of the class of this field but to the eye he was brutal the other day. Guard Of Honour can improve as well.
Davidson: I’m happy to give Guard Of Honour another chance. He clocked 33.20s for his last 600m first-up which was only bettered by On The Spot at Randwick that day. He gets a nice little weight swing on a few of his rivals here. Bryneich is the unknown and John O’Shea said this week he is a bit sharper than Bezel at the moment. Spending To Win, Comin’ Through and Bezel next best.
RACE 7 (4.25pm): BREEDERS CLASSIC (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m leaning to Flippant and I just think it was a much improved run when ridden forward last time. She just doesn’t go when they ride her quiet and this is the first time she has had a barrier for as long as I can remember. I’m expecting Corey Brown is pretty aggressive from barrier one and he is a chance of even holding the lead and being hard to run down third-up. Egyptian Symbol is the danger and she just hasn’t been suited leading. She is very fit and things might pan out better for her with a bit more speed. I Am Zelady looked as fat as a fool first-up and then I thought she was enormous at the Gold Coast. Danish Twist is an underrated mare and she had excuses when close up in the Myer and she did run a great third in a Group 2 first-up last prep.
Davidson: I didn’t think there was a lot between Egyptian Symbol, Danish Twist and Flippant. I went with Egyptian Symbol just because she is rock-hard fit and, as you pointed out, she should be able to take a sit here. Danish Twist just missed behind the boys in the Premiere Stakes first-up last preparation and she gets in so well under the set weights plus penalties conditions of this race. Flippant was enormous at the Gold Coast last start and will get a lovely run on speed with just 54kg on her back.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Danish Twist $4.60-$3.80 ($400 @ $4.60, $200 @ $4.20), Egyptian Symbol $6-$4.60 ($400 @ $6, $350 @ $5), I Am Zelady $6 unchanged ($500 @ $6)
RACE 8 (5.05pm): THE STAR CLUB HCP (1600m)
Dufficy: Imanui is on the up and he is a lovely, big strong horse and he caught the eye second-up. Third-up, a mile with clear running he will be hard to hold out. I think the danger is Liapari who was heavily backed and unlucky after finding trouble last time. I would have tipped Esteban on top if it was 2000m and I have just been waiting for him to get blinkers back on and he does get them here. He is a massive improver as is Invincible Knight who was impressive winning first-up and he pulled up with a little injury last time. He could easily bounce back.
Davidson: I agree with Imanui and I’m just hoping he can settle midfield. He is unbeaten in two runs at the mile and looks perfectly placed third-up. Liapari was stiff last time out and the run before that was good as well. Classic Uniform is racing really well, while Invincible Knight and Esteban are worth throwing in your quaddie, and the latter has had four starts with the blinkers on for four wins.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Liapari $6-$5 ($500 @ $6, $200 e/w @ $5/$1.96), Imanui $6-$5 ($510 @ $6, $300 x $500 e/w @ $5.50/$2.09, $250 @ $5, $200 @ $5)
RACE 9 (5.45pm): IT’S ON! IN SYDNEY HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: I’m thinking he may need a run but I just think Veladero is flying. I thought his trial was unbelievable in a fast heat and he showed aggression and wanted to be there. He did win his maiden over 1400m first-up last preparation and I know he has a big weight but I think he can’t do anything bar sprint well fresh here. I think Roaring To Win is the danger and he was above himself first-up and was off a long spell there and his track and distance form is quite acceptable here. Nothing wrong with Deploy and although he is right up in the weights it is hard to knock him. He goes to 1400m for the first time but I can’t see too many issues with that. There is one here at 100-1 and he usually needs racing before he comes right but Lie Direct is another trial blackbooker that could sneak into the first four at any old odds.
Davidson: Shayne O’Cass also made a case for Lie Direct as well. I stuck with Deploy despite the 5kg weight rise and step up to 1400m. He maps well and he is still on the up. Tower Of Song goes close if he can repeat his last-start performance. Veladero and Roaring To Win next best.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Were Sure $8 unchanged ($2,000 e/w @ $8/$2.69, $500 @ $8), Nikitas $11-$9.50 ($400 @ $11, $250 @ $9, $200 @ $9)
DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS
BEST BET: Race 4, No. 5 DAL CIELO
NEXT BEST: Race 3, No. 3 STRAWBERRY BOY
BEST VALUE: Race 2, No. 3 TAKING AIM